Advice on Lycoming IO 360-C1C6 Calendar Time TBO!!! ASAP
I am negotiating $$ on 2004 Arrow 3 with 1000 engine hrs, 2020 Airframe hrs, BUT 10 years on engine. My flight concerns are lessened due to consistent & diligent maintenance (exp: oil analysis every 50 hrs), by a highly experienced IA. However, a cylinder was recently replaced due to compression loss…
The current owner flys plane an average of 10 hrs a month, often at altitudes of 7,5 to 11,5 A busy month might see 20 hrs added to Hobbs. IF I buy this plane, fly her 2 to 3 years, I WILL be at the Recommended 12 year TBO… or Beyond. I have read the previous posts on this subject. However, no one mentions Resale of their planes…
Now for my Resale concern: (Imagining that all continues well with engine), I imagine I must be prepared to Seriously Lower Resale Price, OR Ultimately, Replace engine??
About me. I owned a Turbo Arrow as well as a normally aspirated Arrow many years ago. Loved them both, especially my 201T! Left flying career to pursue another career; finally returned 3 years ago flying a rented Piper Warrior. Lack of proper maintenance drove my decision to again Own my Bird.
I am a passionate Piper proponent and most grateful to find this site. Look forward to responses. Thanks.
Comments
I don’t think many people pay too much attention in the part 91 world to time calendar wise for overhaul. As long as the plane has been well-maintained and flown often without long periods of an activity, it should be fine. You should price the plane accordingly for the higher number of hours but I wouldn’t pay as much attention to calendar time.
Sounds like a well flown plane. 10 hrs a month is great. I know for financing they will look at engine hours and if it is near TBO would require an escrow for the overhaul added to the loan in some cases. I have only heard about this as being hour based vs time based.
For Part 91 there is no requirement to overhaul on time and I don't think as much of a stigma for time vs hours. There is no requirement to overhaul based on hours either.
The time factor is mostly accumulated risk of corrosion/seals aging, etc. I would inspect for leaks in the case,etc but would not discount the plane for time since overhaul.
If they are flying 10 hrs a month on average with 1000 hrs on the engine in 10 years I would consider this a big plus. Most of the planes I have bought the owner stopped flying months ago and finally got around to sell it.
I would not be concerned with the cylinder - they are designed to be replaced and often replaced. When they replaced the cylinder did they make note of the condition of the cam and lifters? If they looked great I think you have an excellent opportunity.
Took a peek at Controller and no one even lists the overhaul date - just hours since SMOH or top.
I think hours since overhaul is a better metric but not every engine will make it to TBO and many would be fine 100's of hours over.
If you are looking at a range of planes like this:
1) Zero hours since overhaul
2) 1000 hours and 10 year since overhaul - 10 hrs a month
3) 300 hrs and 6 years since overhaul - has not flown since January 2023
#2 is is the least risk plane and will in general have fewer surprises.
Welcome back to the Piper community!
Eric Panning
1981 Seneca III
Hillsboro, OR (KHIO)
ldlresearch,
Big Picture: If you have the opportunity to acquire a late-model Arrow at a competitive price, reflecting the actual condition of the airframe, powerplant, and avionics, then by all means do it. You'll be getting one of the nicest GA airplanes there is!
Two other comments:
What situation led to the last engine replacement at only 9 years and 1000 hours?
If you do purchase it, and find somewhere down the road your future resale timing coincides with a need for major engine repairs or replacement, you're almost certainly better off to sell as-is, versus making a major outlay just before sale. The engine you spend 50-75K on will probably only increase resale by 20-25K.
Good luck,
Bob
In putting on my buyer's perspective hat, here are some thoughts.
A well maintained Arrow that managed to spend its life outside of a club or school is a HUGE plus. If this is the focus plane's actual life, along with a mid-time and frequently flown engine, it is a rare find and arguably a unicorn.
Others already touched on the engine as not really a concern based on the items stated so far in this thread.
To the core of the question: what to expect in another 3 or so years when flipping the Arrow and knowingly getting to the TBO mark. Yes, as a buyer I will discount the engine and treat it as having nearly zero value. Sure, I will seriously focus on maintenance logs with a trusted IA, recognize that the engine might go another 2000 hours, but will also factor in that the engine is at risk of needing major work in the near term, and possibly unplanned timing for this work. But if the overall care of the plane looks good, I will remain in the hunt to buy and continue with negotiations.
One factor that will get my attention far more than a potentially run-out engine is the wing spar. If there are no traces of addressing the wing spars as appropriate, I bail.
But, the lingering question is: So what?
If the true intent is to sell the plane in about 3 years, then just get ready for the effects of an engine in the TBO range. In the interim, fly it like you own it and enjoy the ride. But if the intent is to sell the plane to avoid getting a new / overhauled engine, this makes no sense in my world. Start the budget allowance, just replace the engine when its time comes, and keep flying a good plane for as long as it meets the mission.
And this leads me to another element that I consider during the purchase process: how did the current owner take care of the plane? If I get a sense that the owner buys planes, runs-out the engine, and ditches the plane to avoid ongoing investments, this leaves me wondering how many other items were deferred which are about to bite me. The bigger the list of questions, the more I consider whether it is worth low-balling, or simply stop wasting energy and bail.
Jacob,
Thanks for the post. Wanted to understand a bit further. Do you view TBO (engine hours) and calendar time the same way? The original poster would only add a couple hundred hours on top of the 1000 over 2-3 years but at this time the engine would be at year 12 - the recommended overhaul time with maybe 1200 hrs on a 2000 hrs TBO.
Eric Panning
1981 Seneca III
Hillsboro, OR (KHIO)
The poke about age vs hours is a great question and truly appreciate its effect on the thought process.
Not clearly noted in the original question was how many hours to expect from now until the TBO mark by years. One way to read the narrative is that TBO will coincide from both hours and age.
In the end, I'd still heavily discount the engine's value, but possibly less so merely based on age. It really depends. Final amount will rely on inputs from a trusted IA and trail in the maintenance logs. Based on information in this thread, would probably focus more on how much to discount based on hours as the engine is getting regular use. Not helping the decision though is lack of direct experience with this plane (yet) and the reality that not all sellers fairly represent the goods.
As noted, TBO is a recommendation, and not all engines make it to TBO.
If I decided to go forward with purchase of an engine in the TBO zone, whether by hours or age, I'd still want a price offset to account for the risk. Some prospective buyers will likely declare the engine dead based on age, but can probably expect somebody whom is able to do the math of whether the engine is worth the risk.
Either way, I'd still have a plan to replace the engine if the IA gets heartburn right after purchase.
Although, I still have the lingering question of why we need to sell the plane in a few years. If this is due to a likely change in mission, that makes sense. But if we are looking to get out of a plane with the engine as it gets to TBO based on age just to avoid the potential expense, that makes less sense and raises the question of why to buy this plane in the first place, as opposed to one that poses less concern with the age of its engine.
My thanks to all of You,!
Your responses have clarified much. My thoughts, & therefore comments about resale have to do with a possible change of mission in 2 or 3 years. Operative word here is Possible.
If my husband gets his ticket, that would increase our Arrow-owning-life. If he does not, then I may encounter prohibitive insurance costs.
I expect no more than 100 hours yearly. AND I Will be at calendar TBO in spring 2026.
I appreciate Jacob,s “buyer’s perspective”
I was concerned that a prospective buyer Would discount engine based on calendar TBO. OK.
That said, I’m assuming from your posts, that I Should discount engine NOW as well.
With so few early 2,000’s Arrows on the market, We’ve had little to shop & compare. And prices have skyrocketed!
The owner is asking $280,000. This is high even in our inflated market! Especially since our Insurance agent gave a blue book Hull value of only $179,000!
And yes, we have negotiated from $300,000 to the current $280K fiigure. This has taken weeks. We are ready to walk…
Owner has included a spread-sheet itemizing $10,000 worth of used, refurbished, & a few new, parts. (Frustrating for the IA to store it all.) No idea where we will store them….
From past experience, I know it’s smart to keep a few air filters, quarts of oil & additive, but beyond that my IA can usually procure needed parts in 24 hours. I would much rather reduce the Actual $$$ than accrue parts in our garage at this moment.
This ‘parts included’ is the owner’s Only concession when I called off negotiations last week.
So what am I asking.. is this an absurdly inflated price for this Arrow?? OR Is this where we are in today’s market?
The IA insists Im getting ‘a very well maintained aircraft’. He has been through it in a 10/2022 100 hour & 6/2023 Annual & does the ongoing maintenance.
He recently checked compression for me, all good; and the last 2 50-hour oil analysis are again spotless following the cylinder change. There are No leaks to be found.
My husband would like to make one final attempt to reduce price to $260 to $270 K Max!
We would so appreciate your feedback & guidance. Thanks to all.
BTW: my husband is quite impressed with this Piper pilot’s community. As am I.
Hi ldlresearch,
A couple of ideas come to mind reading your post.
The "argument from authority," (in legal terminology) is a great negotiating tactic. The challenge is that many, if not most, "authorities" have a horse in the race. When the city generates an assessment on your house it's typically only 70-75% of what a realtor could actually sell it for, because the city knows that everyone would complain, and file for abatements, if the assessment approached the market value. The city of course raises the $/1000 rate to compensate, and receive the same (or more) tax revenue at the end of the day. Same is true with insurance valuations; they want to minimize their liability in the event you claim a total loss, so their "blue book", numbers are much lower than actual sale prices. Most airplane sellers are well aware of this, and won't accept a book number as proof of anything. One way you can make "argument from authority," work in your favor is to hire an appraiser to write a custom report, calling out specifics of this exemplar and how they determine the actual price.
Another great negotiating tactic is time. I've seen cases where the sale price was discounted significantly when the annual was due, when the insurance renewal was due, or when the owner's flight review was about to lapse, and he intended to retire from flying. I don't know if any of those conditions apply to your case. If they don't immediately apply, you can always walk on the deal and come back and negotiate again as the annual approaches.
Toward the question you pose, "is this an absurdly inflated price for this Arrow?? OR Is this where we are in today’s market," that's hard to answer without additional information. Questions that come to mind are:
Bob
Idlresearch,
One more thought, if I may. I own a 1978 Turbo Arrow III and while it's currently AOG because of the v-band clamp AD until next spring at the earliest (lack of available replacement clamps), I enjoy the utility of this plane. That said, while a much newer plane might not need as much or as significant maintenance as my 47 yo bird, in my experience I'd expect regular (vs a hands off between annuals) maintenance attention for a 10 yo plane.
I'd recommend pricing the difference between what you're considering and a plane that has twice the hours (and maybe twice as old) and consider the relative value of plane-newer + expected maintenance vs plane-older + expected maintenance. I chose to buy the older plane because it offered me both what I could use immediately and the opportunity better manage maintenance costs vs paying a higher price without knowing if I'd have significantly lower maintenance costs to account for the price difference.
Net, net: I needed to leave room in my 5 year budget for maintenance vs assuming I'd not need much if I bought a "newer" plane. Just my thoughts. Good luck with your journey.
DJ
Thanks for your prompt response Bob,
We do not know Why the engine was replaced. No record of any damage history. My IA refuses to speculate on ‘why’.
The plane is Not used by a school. The owner is very cautious since he is only student pilot. And previous annual left him ‘with some questions/issues’. He is not that forthcoming with details. Always refers me to the IA.
Avionics are all OP. 2 Garmen 430’s
2 Avidyne Entegra 1 PFD & 1 MFD
S-TEC 55X autopilot
Original paint & interior. Good shape.
I hope this helps you determine the Reality of this price in today’s market.
I am now on a ‘contract deadline’. And we are bleary eyed from researching! My husband & I are grateful for feedback .
The owners always-stressed-behavior has Not made this an easy process.
The majority of your answers - modern avionics, good P&I, no school history (other than being presently operated by a student pilot) - supports a higher valuation. Given the other exemplars currently advertised, 280K is definitely in the ballpark.
On the other hand, uncertainty over the engine's pedigree, and reasons for replacement, would make me very nervous. I don't know if your arrangement with the seller gets you access to the entire logbook history or not. If it does, I'd be inclined to call the A&P who did the engine swap and ask about the circumstances. He should have full details in his records (it's an FAA requirement). There should also be a run sheet from the test stand in the records, that will give the name of the overhauler. I'd also give them a call and find out what they did. The procedure to return a prop strike to service is very different from a general overhaul, and they should have all the details in their records. You might also search the form 337s that have been filed.
I am not as concerned with the plane as much as the seller. If this is how they act before you buy the plane....
Is there a specific reason why 2002+? I would look at older ones that are half the price. Insurance is less, much more money in your pocket for panel upgrades, etc. If the insurance agent will not assess for more than 179k you would be significantly under insured too with this one. I judge pilots by how they fly - not what they fly....
The biggest reason for me though is a stressed out seller that is stressing you out!
Eric
Eric Panning
1981 Seneca III
Hillsboro, OR (KHIO)
Ok, so some more details to help color the narrative.
First, if the husband does not feel any pressure to get his ticket, gently remind him that there are plenty of available potential pilot husbands. So, no pressure, right? 😁
Do not understand what a "contract deadline" means, but does not really matter. Net effect is it seems that there is pressure to get this done, and my perspective is that perhaps it is time to take a time-out and absorb. Short fuse actions without sufficient time to digest are common drivers for remorse. Lets try it this way: how are y'all sleeping? If not well, then the decision is wrong. If sleeping well, the the decision is good.
This is starting to feel like a scenario where it is best to pay an attorney take over the conversation in order to maintain an unemotional conversation.
Back to the 2 - 3 year resale perspective:
- Those 430's will probably hold down price a fair amount as they are at risk of needing immediate replacement at time of, or shortly after, resale. Today they are Ok, BUT Garmin announced that by the end of 2024, there are no guarantees of serviceability. Meaning, we don't know what parts are fix-able, and what ones will render the unit scrap. So at best they are a neutral for today's purchase, but in reality I'd put them as a discount on valuation as their sunset date is closer than current owners want to admit. Come resale time, if they are still in the panel, expect them to pull the price down.
- The autopilot might give some buyers concern as it is now legacy technology. Definitely a nice unit and worth keeping until it breaks, although will also raise questions of why the AP did not get an upgrade when the steam gauges were replaced with glass. Not to insult any demographics, but younger pilots are less adaptable to "older" stuff and there is a desire to only go with new tech. Thank the fruit company for that.
- The glass panel. Will admit that I only got to the surface level of the Entegra's specs to see that it has backup battery capability, but have not looked into the run time. If it is an "up to 1 hour" rating, this will give moderate to hard IFR flyers bargaining room (if they even want to make a bid). While not the best expert on glass panel requirements, this setup might also need an external AI to compliment the glass, and if this unit also has an "up to 1 hour" battery rating, it will compound the topic. Here is the perspective: "up to 1 hour" does not necessarily mean 1 hour. Within that 1 hour from the DC power going dead while in actual IMC, I can expect to budget enough time for immediate diversion to the nearest airport with an approach, and hope to avoid going missed. In doing high level mental math, going missed raises the risk of a completely dark panel while on the second attempt. And the longer it took to get to the nearest approach reduces available time for the approach and missed. So, it is all a matter of appetite for risk. To mitigate, I'd plan all flights with higher ceilings along the route and cancel when anything along the route has low ceilings which might result in a missed. Definitely fine if I am more in the leisure category of flying, but somebody using the plane for business will likely think twice. Am perfectly fine with anybody flaming this perspective.
- One element not mentioned: ADSB? If OUT only, a buyer will question why given the glass upgrade.
Ok, so that is the future resale perspective.
To the pricing for today:
- As already noted, the currently negotiated price does seem inline with a listing on Trade-A-Plane for a N/A 2002 Arrow, after mentally adjusting for the differences. To me, pricing differences of N/A and turbo is like a house with a swimming pool. Meaning, no price advantage of one over the other. Not looking to insult anybody, just observing.
- Unless the "very well maintained" comments are coming from your independent IA, take them the same as a father stating how awesome his daughter is. Sure, some are great, but a dad is gonna see her as better than the best.
- Agree with Eric that induced stress by the seller is not helping. Related, that 2002 on Trade-A-Plane is available from a broker and the 2004 target Arrow seems like it is FSBO. If it is FSBO, there is typically more room for negotiation. Just say-in.
- We have an insurance value for the hull of $179,000. The seller will simply have to itemize the additional $100,000. That is a huge amount of money lost if a twister comes along and sends the plane flying on its own.
- What is the deal with the $10,000 in extra parts? Simply planned to go through phased upgrades, or trying to get ahead of maintenance issues?
Given the additional details, lack of transparency regarding the last Annual does raise concern of a buyer beware scenario. Only real way to mitigate is by going through the process of an independent inspection by a completely unrelated IA that is very familiar with the PA-28 lineage. But this means putting out money to discover what the buyer does not want to fess-up to. Am not sure how to feel about that as it does not help me want to contract for a premium as the entry position. Rather it makes me feel like I am going to have to pay to learn about gotchas. My desirable stance is the seller tell me about the warts, then I verify, and I don't find any new ones that the seller should have known about.