P28R-200 to buy w/10.8k hrs, too many?
Hi All,
I’m sure this topic has been cycled through before, but here is one more time. New pilot, 85 hours. Intent is to work on IFR certification this summer, purchase an Arrow, Cherokee 235 or Comanche (looking for performance and range). I’ve come across a nice Arrow II, but it has just under 11,000 hours on the airframe. Go for it? Run away? Thoughts?
Howard
Comments
There is a heavy dose of "it depends" to it.
Were it me on the purchasing side, I'd want to see results of an eddy current test on the spars. While the plane likely had other tests like the dye penetrant, I'd insist on the eddy current if not done within the past few years.
Next I'd go through the SBs and see if the owner and previous owners decided to skip a bunch.
While looking for SB compliance, I'd comb through the logs to see about both maintenance and clues on type of use. Even if I am planning to keep the plane long term, factor in that the next buyer will most likely come to the deal with the same level of skepticism merely due to the TT.
If it was used for training, keep looking. Carl
Personally, for what you want to do , Archer to start with .
48 yrs A/P IA DAL aircraft inspector. 172N
Hrhett;
Long response, so grab a drink.
Your topic is valid, and everyone here is happy to help you. For starters, congrats on your PPL! The Arrow is a great complex platform. Jacobsja's advice is spot on as far as issues to consider before purchase.
Break your purchase down into 2 categories: airplane mission and airplane condition.
You're going to hear the phrase "What is your mission?" a lot. It's how you intend to use the airplane, what you expect from it, and what's important to you. All the planes you listed will meet the mission of performance and range while you're earning your IFR rating. Here are some additional mission criteria to consider before purchase: Number of passengers, useful load, maintenance cost, insurance rates, resale, etc.
Range-wise, you'll probably find like I did, that on long x-c flights my passenger's bladders determine how often I need to stop. You'll find that (like a road trip in a car), a stop every 3 hours or so for bio relief, to stretch your legs, get something to eat/drink, is a welcome break. Bottom line is range winds up meaning flying until you've had enough. I've had days where I was the sole pilot for 11 hrs, so I've been there.
Next, have you checked with an insurance company on rates? Don't take this wrong, but here's what the insurance company sees: a low time pilot with little to no time in type. And the type is complex. Even if all your 85 hrs are in a complex plane, it's still low. Just being honest with you. A fixed gear will be substantially less to insure, but you need to determine your mission and priorities.
Next is the plane's condition: It's not always the number of hours, but the kind of flying that accumulated those hours, and how well it was maintained during that time.
Here are some airplane condition topics to consider and costs.
(Note: these are ballpark numbers and can vary widely)
Finally, don't get buyers fever. There are plenty of aircraft out there, and some are cream-puffs. Make a chart and assign weight to the items that are important to you. Then fill out the chart for each plane, and add up the score. Factor in your gut feel. If anything about the seller or the deal seems sketchy, walk away.
What year is this plane? Can you post pics? Link to an ad?
Jim "Doc Griff" Griffin
PA28 - 161
Chicago area
Thanks Jim,
All good advice (from everyone actually). I’m a newbie insofar as first plane but many of the checklist items you mentioned I’ve addressed. I spoke with my insurance broker and recently got a ‘reasonable’ rate for a retract. Mission is simple: Time Machine to take me to see friends and family from the northeast to the mid-Atlantic. Probably mostly just me, occasionally my wife and/or a friend. Not trying to break the bank depending on how much I actually use it or not. The most avionics I’d be willing to add would be a decent GPS. Everything else is a ‘nice to have’. Something I wouldn’t be embarrassed to walk up to is the baseline.
Engine time is higher on this bird ~1,400, guessing I’ll put maybe an additional 50 on it annually. I agree with Carl if it’s a trainer. Of this much, I’ve learned.
Tried posting the link but I got an error. You can find it on Controller N4306T.
Howard
To the mission, casual reminder that despite upcoming IFR rating, icing and convective are factors that will effect ability to execute a planned flight. Been there many times and am personally good with telling folks that the flight is a No-Go, or that we need to return early, despite lots of advance plans and heartbreak of staying home or shortening a trip. If plans involve hard dates, pay for a ride on a commercial carrier or drive. Just say-in.
From the ad, I would not go into this from a position of love, but more of potential investment by way of selling off as parts. Pricing is leaning toward the parts approach presuming the wing spars are good.
As noted, if history includes use in a flight school (or club that focuses on flight training), simply stop at this point and focus on another plane.
But if willing to move forward with an intent to purchase and fly, best first step is to get a copy of the logs and review with an A&P, or service like Savvy. If somebody 'steals' this plane away from you while taking time to look over the logs, you were probably done a favor. If the broker or seller are unwilling to make the logs available for review before putting any money down, walk away and don't look back.
Here is my skeptical review of the ad:
- Cannot tell whether the plane is ADSB compliant. The photo of the rear position light is possibly a statement of ADSB, but personally cannot tell. Logs should indicate status. If not ADSB compliant, this is an immedeate post-purchase expense item.
- Even with notation of a new interior in 2015, some of it is looking well worn.
- While there is a statement about wing spar AD compliance, there is no statement about which AD. Missing is the term "eddy current" where it is possible to comply with one of the ADs via other means.
- While there is a statement about complete logs, missing is "NDH" which raises concerns of damage repairs lying within.
- Am seeing the plane still relies on a vacuum pump. Chances are good that the pump is past its 500 hour plackarded replacement interval as many owners are either ignorant to this limitation, or deliberately ignore until it dies. Logs will reveal the last replacement date and current service hours. FWIW, vacuum pumps that die while the plane is IFR have a trail of after incident reports for other pilots to (hopefully) learn from. Just say-in.
- Interesting set of statements regarding the prop and engine. One states that both were replaced in 2012 due to a prop strike, which raises the question of why to waste ad space detailing their replacement in 2004. This raises some more focus items:
++ Now we know why the ad lacks "NDH" and the question shifts to what else is lying within the logs, or simply fixed without recognition.
++ The engine might be nearly done and facing replacement with new / reman due to multiple overhauls and no longer able to meet minimum tolerances. Logs will give some clues here.
++ I have seen engines survive prop strikes from similar scenarios (per the 2012 incident description) and go back into service after inspection (and minor parts replacments in some instances). So rhetorical question is: what was it about the 2012 prop strike that doomed the engine? Was it nearly at (or over) TBO anyway?
++ What caused the simultaneous engine and prop replacement in 2004? Am honestly not sure I'd want to know given the other items.
Only favorable item I am seeing is that this plane has a regular tail and not a T-tail. After spending some time in a T-tail Arrow, I prefer regular tail due to slightly lower landing and rotation speeds. But that is my preference.
Jacob,
Noted on the icing and IFR. We suffered a local tragedy recently when the owner of a local flight school, one of her senior instructors and a student went down in a 58 twin. NTSB investigators documented icing at the site. Very tragic. I’m okay with saying no and staying on the ground.
From the responses from my initial inquiry, this one has generated a lot of questions. Too many I think. I’ll pass up on the shiny paint job.
Howard
Howard;
Jacobsja did an outstanding job not only going through the ad with a fine tooth comb, but asked the correct questions to uncover the plane's true history.
Very wise of you to walk away. When you meet Jacobsja, buy him a drink! 🥃😀
Jim "Doc Griff" Griffin
PA28 - 161
Chicago area
Absolutely! Thank you both!
You're welcome! We're all here to help each other.
There is a ton of good information for first time owners in the webinar section. Go to "For Members" 》 "Webinars" 》"Pre-Buy & First Six Months Webinar Series", then click through whatever interests you!
Enjoy!
Jim "Doc Griff" Griffin
PA28 - 161
Chicago area
Howard,
I think this is the one on controller.
www.controller.com/listing/for-sale/229864187/1971-piper-arrow-ii-piston-single-aircraft
I think one challenge is the panel is KX155's only. This is great for learning the fundamentals of IFR but for cross country having a panel GPS and an AP makes a huge difference. You can close some of this gap with foreflight for monitoring vs reference.
Adding GPS is not inexpensive nor quick. According to flight aware has not popped up in the system since 2018 but I don't think it has ADSB either. Likely has not flown IFR since 2018 since this would typically pop up in flightaware.
The ad says it passed the spar AD inspection.
I learned IFR in a Cherokee 180 with a single non flip-flop NAV, a ADF and a DME. Everything has ben easy since then ;)
Thanks for sharing your plans.
Eric Panning
1981 Seneca III
Hillsboro, OR (KHIO)
Yup, that’s it Eric! I’m looking forward to being a member of the family! Thanks Jim!
correct me if i'm wrong but didn't the Arrow II come out in '72 with airframe stretch.
Not an Arrow II due to the engine.
'76 Arrow II
W75 Hummel field
Semper Fi
One add RE: the mission. You indicated a desire to travel up and down the NE and mid-Atlantic coast using your newly acquired IFR rating. From my experience not all IFR environments are the same - especially for a newly minted rating. For example, here in the Midwest I rarely get a rerouting and often get Direct; just the opposite in the NE. As a new IFR pilot I expect you’ll have your hands full - triply so in the NE. Just one more thing to consider until you gain experience as you evaluate the complexity of the plane and mission.
DJ
DJ,
Yes and that particular plane just has NAV heads - no certified GPS. My experience is passengers are either interested or indifferent to IFR. IMC on the other hand... this can be very disorientating to the passengers.
Howard,
As you expand your IFR flying skills seek out "easy" IFR to start. High bases, day light, no icing, familiar air space, weather and terrain "outs" and minimal schedule pressure.
When I had my Cessna 421C we flew KHIO to STS (Santa Rosa) for a weekend in wine country with 4 adults and 4 kids. On Sunday I was informed by the other family that they had to get back ASAP as they were driving a girl scout group to an event.
Of course it was fogged in too... I recall telling them with absolute certainty that there is no way I am going to risk taking off in ~ zero-zero. A couple hours later we took off in beautiful sunshine for an uneventful return trip.
Of all the ratings I think IFR cert is the most satisfying. If you have a couple routes in mind I would highly recommend flying them with your instructor well into your training or even after you have your IFR cert.
By far the hardest skill to pick up flying IFR is planning for and flying in weather. Getting as much actual IMC time as possible is also important. None of the foggles or hoods really simulate IMC and there are usually enough visual clues like shadows on the panel to provide a surrogate for attitude.
Please keep us updated on your IFR progress as well as plane plans.
Eric Panning
1981 Seneca III
Hillsboro, OR (KHIO)
All good advice, thank you Eric. I will.
I thought the same thing. But then I looked at the serial number and it starts with 72, Arrow I begin with 35. The Arrow II’s had model year put in front of the 35. I believe the aircraft is an Arrow II.
1973 Arrow II factory AC removed
G5’S, G275, GNX375 Still can get lost.
I went through about this same thing last year. I was basically only shopping for Arrows because they fit my mission well. IMO, this one seems about market priced for the condition and panel. That being said, I and my prebuys turned up a lot of things that you just can't see or were not mentioned in the ads.
The one I did finally buy I was very happy with my purchase, but still had a couple of MX items that popped up in the first 3 months.
My only add (I don't think I saw this mentioned) is this Arrow is being sold by a broker. They tended to know nothing (or denied knowing anything). Similar to a used car salesman, they just try to get you to come take a look and will say anything to close the sale.
This question was asked while I was fresh out of neck surgery and stoned out of my mind. I figured best not to answer.
Now that I am just stoned to the point I sit in my chair and have to be watered and dressings changed I am in fine condition to offer financial advice.
I would buy it.
Please look back at the May 2023 magazine to see what I bought. I have N15665 not the cover Arrow.
The plane in question:
Yes it has a lot of hours, yes it has a lot of smash and goes. Yes, in its past it was flown like the you stole it.
The panel is full of classic antique instruments. It needs moved into the 21st Century. It will need ADS-B to fly home or get a buddy to fly with you.
I took a tape measure and went from nose gear to nav light for each wing and nav light to tail tie down. My plane came out within 1/4 of square. I think they have laser measuring toys that can do all what took me close to an hour to do in seconds.
For anyone wondering why N15665 has not flown for a while it is because I had my neck disassembled and Hartzell would not allow any more 100 hour Eddy Current inspections of my hub so what’s $14,500 among friends? Sent them the money they act surprised I wanted them to send a prop in return. The wrench putting the prop on just told me all the hardware accompanying the prop is for the wrong thread pitch. Now we await bolts and stuff.
It also got electronic vacuum advance ignition. SureFly, right after I had both mags replaced 75-100 hours ago.
Buy that Arrow.
I paid $60,000 for mine. Put $44,000 in it for a first annual and getting in airworthy. Flew it hard for a year, it proved itself to be a good plane so we did an interior and a lot of glass stuff. That was $48,000 and now the annual prop and electronic ignition and minor look at me stuff $22,000.
My mechanic said he thinks my Arrow is close to being done, we can always put new electronics in it but it is good down to 200/-1/2. The only thing I am missing is an auto-pilot. He says to wait, the price will come down in a few years.
Please remember, this is not financial advice, by license I am a meteorologist, we are wrong 90% of the time. I am also enjoying strong narcotic drugs. Plus I am told I am an idiot.
Buy it. It can be fixed, it’s only money.
Buy it as long as you know you have about $100,000 needed to make it a head turner.
The only reason I would not buy other than the additional $100,000 is if they are planning a life limit on PA-28’s. I heard something about that but nothing recently.
If you get it and it is an Arrow II the trim pieces are different for the pre 1974 model years. We have a totally unique door. Understand, they are special.
.
1973 Arrow II factory AC removed
G5’S, G275, GNX375 Still can get lost.
Resq5hvy, et-al,
Well, it’s still sitting there so the night is young. Pivoting from the Arrow II for a minute: Staying on mission for a solid Piper that’ll get me there and back in a jiffy, I’ve seen a nice Comanche 250. That said, it ups the ante. Complex and high performance. With just 85 hours am I pushing it? Am I, as you say it, “stoned”. Is it crazy for me to be looking at either of these planes as a new pilot? I know (certainly over time) that I can handle either but I’m wondering if I should be looking at a fixed tricycle with a little less going on and then trade up as I gain more hours.
Let me have it.
Howard
Howard,
You can definitely do it. Just a matter of training and commitment. A Comanche may require a complex and high performance endorsement but it is not really that complex of a plane. The HP and prop give you a wide performance window for climb and cruise. The Comanche is not that far from the rest of the Piper fleet and well mannered.
If you had your heart set on a Lancair IV-P at 85 hours I think that would be crazy as the combination of laminar wing and power off glide characteristics of a lawn dart would be a steep learning curve for any pilot and even then plenty of 1000+ hrs pilots have run into fatal trouble in emergencies.
The other way to look at it is what incremental risks are you taking on with a complex and HP Comanche ?
1) You might land gear up which is bad for the plane, insurance rates, but generally just fine for the passengers.
2) The extra power and performance may lure you into bad weather and as a relatively new pilot this is already a challenge in any plane.
3) You might out climb your lungs and risk hypoxia
4) More rudder needed on take off and the power roll on needs to be smoother - possible to lift off early or mis manage a low altitude go-around.
I think this list is very manageable and not much incrementally. Most of these are procedural and pilots are great with procedures. Watch out for #2 - this one is behavioral for any plane and not so easy to master. This is where a great instructor is invaluable. I know you want to go places with the family but it can be hard making decisions especially VFR only and as a low hour pilot. Hire your instructor to review your flight planning and decision making on cross countries. I promise you it will be a better investment then any gadget in the panel.
Eric
Eric Panning
1981 Seneca III
Hillsboro, OR (KHIO)
Might consider taking one more step back to double check which planes meet the mission. We started with an Arrow, Dakota / Pathfinder, and Comanche. The Comanche also opens the door for Cherokee 6, Lance, and Saratoga. If there is a need to get above weather, turbo enters the picture. While I avoided turbo, there are some days where I wish I had charged air. Related, is the price range a critical factor? Price will bound the plane's age and potentially eliminate newer candidates. Older airframes are not necessarily a bad thing as I know first hand that hull value plays a big factor in insurance premimum based on quotes of two nearly identical planes which were 25 years apart in age (hint: the older plane's quote was MUCH lower).
Another decision path is tolerance for downtime. Unless able to buy a new plane, vintage planes will have varying amounts of needs for brining them current. The more the plane needs in terms of upgrade / rehab, the more extensive the downtime. If the mission can handle a long downtime (measured as a year or so), the list of candidates is wide. If not, focusing on something that needs nothing will shrink the pool of candidates.